The Caribbean Geophysical and Numerical Research Group
Digits for Earth and Data for Humans
A year that begins, a new tour that begins around our main source of energy and life: the Sun.
Yesterday’s problems have not disappeared, new ones will appear and in our increasingly demanding environment, we must respond collectively and truthfully to the challenge of evolution.
2024 let us open our horizons: our minds, our hearts, our eyes to knowledge and others.
TCGNRG wishes you a happy new year and assures you its support for all these challenges
On Tuesday, November 14, 2023, at 2:15 p.m., the plenary meeting to launch the Regional COP (Regional Conference of the Parties) was held at the Raizet regional space. TCGNRG was there and gives you its reading of the exchanges and this new system for ecological planning
According to the Ministry of Ecology website, the Regional COP aims to « […] à décliner région par région, à l’échelle de l’action concrète, ces objectifs nationaux de réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre, de biodiversité, de préservation des ressources ,e d’économie circulaire et d’adaptation. »1 (“[…] to decline region by region, on the scale of concrete action, these national objectives for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity, resource preservation, circular economy and adaptation.”)
The parties concerned are « […] les collectivités d’une part, mais aussi les entreprises, les associations et les fédérations professionnelles. »1 (“[…] communities on the one hand, but also companies, associations and professional federations.”)
The provisional calendar for the Regional COPs provides: « […] Cet hiver (décembre en Guadeloupe) : établissement d’un diagnostic partagé et co-construit avec les collectivités territoriales; Au printemps 2024 (mars-avril en Guadeloupe) : co-construction avec tous les acteurs des leviers d’action; À l’été 2024 (juin-juillet en Guadeloupe) : pour chaque COP, finalisation des feuilles de route pour l’horizon 2030, au sein du territoire. »1 (“[…] This winter (December in Guadeloupe): establishment of a shared and co-constructed diagnosis with local authorities; In spring 2024 (March-April in Guadeloupe): co-construction of action levers with all stakeholders; In the summer of 2024 (June-July in Guadeloupe): for each COP, finalization of roadmaps for 2030, within the territory.”)
The joint invitation from the prefecture and the Guadeloupe Region of November 10, 2023
calls for « […] (aujourd’hui) de construire une stratégie avec les acteurs de terrain pour élaborer un projet de territoire qui contribue aux objectifs nationaux de transition écologique » (“[…] (today) to build a strategy with field stakeholders to develop a territorial project that contributes to the national objectives of ecological transition”) through the meeting to launch ecological planning in the territory.
By organizing the launch plenary, on November 14th, Guadeloupe is the second French region to launch its COP after the Grand Est region and the first outermost region. Guadeloupe therefore wants to be at the head of the regions for ecological planning even though public transport is poorly developed, recycling is almost non-existent and aquatic environments are dramatic both chemically and ecologically. We must hope that the energy put into embracing this new body will make it possible to bring about real change and not anachronistic decision-making by a developing region applying the references of the former 6th world power.
After the introductory remarks from the Prefecture, the Regional Council, the Departmental Council, the association of Mayors and the Minister in charge of Ecological Transition and Territorial Cohesion and in charge of the Territorialization of ecological planning (recorded video), three presentations were made to introduce the climatic and ecological context of Guadeloupe:
A first presentation was by a lecturer from the University of the Antilles on the climate of Guadeloupe. Unfortunately, the presentation was more focused on the work carried out by his research group than on the state of knowledge of the climate of Guadeloupe. This is undoubtedly linked to the underfunding for research, particularly on climate change, granted to the University of Antilles.
The second presentation was that of the Environment and Energy Management Agency (ADEME) Guadeloupe on the issues of climate change and the reduction of greenhouse gases. Unfortunately, this presentation was based on a political definition of the uses of biofuels and not a physical or climatic one. The switch to biofuels at the Jarry thermal power station will make it possible to consider, thanks to the political definition of renewable energies, that Guadeloupe’s electricity network will be 100% based on renewable energies by 2024-2026. In fact, this thermal power station and that of Le Moule (bagasse/wood/coal) rely on fossil and non-renewable energies. These two power plants therefore have nothing physically (i.e. climatically) green. ADEME Guadeloupe considers that the main challenge will be transport, which is true, but the matter of the electrical network and electricity production is not proportionally resolved. Questions and comments from the public on the Multi-year Energy Program (PPE) and the place given to Geothermal Energy showed the non-acceptance of the energy trajectory proposed by the Guadeloupe Region. The question of energy does not generate consensus among the population and is still far from being climatically virtuous.
The third presentation on the state of biodiversity in Guadeloupe was made by the president of the board of directors of the French Biodiversity Office (OFB). The latter is slow to establish itself as a scientific reference on biodiversity in Guadeloupe, despite its academic qualifications. Numerous questions and comments have, also for this subject, shown the population’s non-acceptance of the current management of the territory and in particular of its biodiversity.
The numerous tensions during this introduction sequence suggest that the conditions are not met for peaceful exchanges on the two issues of climate and biodiversity, both on the side of civil society which denounces a refusal of democracy and of the elected representatives of the regional majority who have difficulty accepting comments and reproaches. The recent update of the PPE and the Regional Plan for Economic Development, Innovation and Internationalization (SRDEII) showed this, leaving a strong feeling in civil society which had mobilized.
The proposals made by DEAL Guadeloupe provide that the Regional COP will work with six thematic groups which will have to work on the six themes of France Nation Verte (France Green Nation), that is to say: better housing, better travel, better protection of our ecosystems, better produce, eat better, consume better. A final group will be responsible for the synthesis. The regional COP will have to propose regional planning to meet national commitments. A list of action levers must therefore be proposed, 52 of which have already been identified by France Nation Verte (see elements of this list at the end of the document), to resolve the five environmental challenges of mitigation, adaptation, biodiversity, resource management and health by 2030.
The main question that can be asked is whether this approach has a chance of proposing a direction consistent with the physical realities of the Guadeloupe archipelago and allowing it to develop while taking its share of responsibility for the reduction of greenhouse gases and protection of (global) biodiversity.
Three elements may suggest that the chances are that this new approach will lead to an impasse, a waste of time and a destabilization of the governance of the Guadeloupe region.
The first element is the experience of the citizens’ climate convention. 150 citizens drawn by a lot full of goodwill who after more than nine (9) months of work made proposals full of common sense, but which did not go in the direction of power and were therefore rejected in the vast majority in the limbo of history (90%). This while not even give the French Parliament the opportunity to discuss these proposals. No one can deny that bottom-up is no longer working in the French Republic in particular since April 23, 2017. The choice to propose the establishment of Regional COPs is based on the same approach as the convention citizen for the climate: an up-bottom decision imposed and not previously discussed. Living conditions are still impacted by climate variations and the level of knowledge being the same when 2019, the chances that the proposals of the Regional COPs will be the same as those of the citizens’ climate convention are great. The proposals were not accepted in 2019, there is no reason for them to be accepted in 2024. Because even if they are declined at the regional level they will have consequences at the national level with a break with the capitalist system and trade at all costs.
The second element which suggests a waste of time is the proposed timetable and the very short deadlines. Proposing in less than six (6) months concrete, realistic and quantified ecological planning options for an archipelagic territory with so much missing information on the current and future climate is at best a sweet dream and at worst a lack of knowledge of the territory. The recurring lack of resources within public services has gradually led to a loss of skills, knowledge and capacity to act. The current situation with too partial knowledge of the territory and the inability to offer simulations on the economic, political and social consequences of decisions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and protect biodiversity will push us to work by the rules of thumb. And therefore to return to the subject frequently to adjust what could not be planned or correctly evaluated. The Regional COP system already foresees annual updates.
The third element which suggests a destabilization of the region or even the country of Guadeloupe is the absence of peaceful social dialogue. Recent exchanges between the majorities of the Regional Council or the Departmental Council and civil society leave little optimism regarding the acceptance of common sense measures which would go against current policies but would better protect our environment and our living environment. As an example, the curious citizen can refer to the revisions of the Multi-year Energy Program (PPE) and the Regional Plan for Economic Development, Innovation and Internationalization (SRDEII).
Effective and realistic ecological planning can only be carried out through a disruption in our mode of operation leading to profound changes in the economy and political governance. The current political power does not seem disposed to too much evolution or even ecological revolution.
TCGNRG will participate in workshops to which we are granted access. This is not with the aim of seeking the best solutions at the regional level for planning but rather to ensure that this moment of democracy is not stolen from civil society using misused scientific concepts such as vague notions of green and renewable energies.
Solutions for a lucid and just transition already exist, we can cite among others the massive development of geothermal energy, free public transport, the reduction of meat consumption, the reduction of processed foods, the development of subsistence agriculture based on agroforestry and permaculture, the promotion of clothing styles more in line with our climate, the revision of taxation to promote the development of production and the local economy, the development of local police powers, etc.
These solutions are only rarely implemented, because they will cause a significant change in the functioning of society and the balance of power. The lobbies of the old carbon world are powerful and have no desire to lose their privileges, the results of the citizens’ climate convention are proof of this.
For TCGNRG Jean-François Marc DORVILLE (jf.dorville@tcgnrg.com)
1https://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/territorialisation-planification-ecologique-christophe-bechu-lance-premiere-cop-regionale-metz-mardi
A non-exhaustive list of levers identified in the document Act better, ecological planning, summary of the plan, July 2023 (Mieux agir, la planification écologique, synthèse du plan, juillet 2023)
The Multiannual Energy Programs (PPE in French) define the orientation and the methodology to be applied by territory to manage their energy production and consumption in a broad sense. They are declined differently from one geographically isolated region to another.
At the French level, the so-called continental metropolis PPE (excluding non-connected territories, Corsica and DROM-COM, therefore independent) includes sections relating[1] to:
Without predicting the provisions that will be taken by the Guadeloupe territory for the period 2023-2033 under the responsibility of Région Guadeloupe, one can expect to find these majors themes supplemented with the specific issues of a small tropical island territory without reservation of fossil fuels.
Guadeloupe’s PPE is currently being revised for the period 2023-2033. The public presentation on March 1st, 2023 made it possible to take stock of the preparation of this important document for the future supply of electrical and fossil energies in Guadeloupe. The document made available leaves you thinking [2]. A presentation in PowerPoint format does not in any way constitute a relevant working document. The schedule provides first the approval by the Regional Council in April 2023, followed by the validation of the General Directorate for Energy and Climate as well as by the French environmental authorities between the months of June and August 2023, then a public availability in October and the final adoption in November this year.
The small amount of information made available nevertheless makes it possible to list the weaknesses of the current vision of the PPE and the points to be worked on and to be strengthened urgently to avoid the catastrophe of the policies on energy and mobility imposed from Brussels and Paris and which do not seem adapted to the country of Guadeloupe.
The first question comes from the forecasts made on energy needs by 2040 with two scenarios that have a difference of 12% in 2028 and 24% in 2040. This difference indicates that according to the two hypotheses, the changes to meet Guadeloupe’s future energy needs could be of the order of a quarter of energy to be produced additionally. Finding the surfaces available to produce a quarter of additional energy is difficult on a small archipelagic territory like that of Guadeloupe where conflicts of use already exist between town planning, agriculture, the preservation of biodiversity and heritage, and protection of natural environments, sites and landscapes. Both models are based on two main parameters, the evolution of the population and the development of electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles.
We are not immune to a natural disaster that forces us to welcome 20 to 30,000 inhabitants from a neighbouring island. On the other hand, the imposed development of electric vehicles should not destabilize our electricity network. An adaptation of European measures must already be studied in order to avoid a social, economic and human disaster.
Only two existing endogenous resources are likely to meet the challenge of the need for energy with low environmental and climatic impact in the Guadeloupe archipelago: geothermal energy; and photovoltaic on all the roofs of buildings and individual houses. It is essential that these two mature sources of production be clearly put forward with support at different levels, training of actors and future actors, awareness of the population, and production and recycling of production tools, i.e. photovoltaic panels and geothermal power plants.
The proposals for revised objectives seem overestimated for all of the proposals, except for geothermal and solar photovoltaic. The recent conflicts around the extension of the Dadou farm at Petit-Canal show that the acceptance limit of the implementation of industrial-scale onshore wind farms in Guadeloupe has been reached. The proposed objectives are unrealistic and disconnected from the reality of the territory which cannot at the same time advocate the protection of biodiversity and develop a technology with a strong environmental impact.
Climate change (drying of the atmosphere in the tropical areas) and growing water needs for market gardening and tourism make water resources increasingly fragile and limit the annual production of hydropower. New means of production can be installed, but annual production is unlikely to increase. It is illusory to rely on this resource and to further alter the water cycle in Guadeloupe by installing new devices on the network of rivers and water reservoirs.
The use of endogenous biomass for energy production is in direct conflict with the needs for (re)nourishment of the soil (mulching, compost) and the production of activated carbon, the needs of which are growing in a territory where a large part of water catchment areas are contaminated by Kepon, among other things. This implies that the 266 MW expected in 2033 will be of exogenous origin, they will negatively impact Guadeloupe’s carbon footprint and will not improve its energy independence.
The current approach aims to make the Guadeloupe electricity network absorb a large part of the mobility needs. This approach is worrying given the high instability of the latter. The geographical distribution of the stable means of production (thermal and geothermal power plant) in the territory makes it very sensitive to natural risks, in particular flooding and marine submersion in the low and humid zone of Jarry.
Mobility, until recently was outside the electricity network, it would be wiser to design a network for recharging electric and hybrid vehicles that is autonomous and disconnected from the main network. The unveiled potential of hydrogen allows us to be confident in the strong growth of fuel cell mobility. This approach will prevent the establishment of monopolies and promote local solutions.
The good results of awareness campaigns on controlling consumption are proof of the importance of the citizen in solving the production-consumption equation. And not just as a player in controlling and reducing energy consumption. The conflict in Dadou at Petit-Canal around the installation of large wind turbines on agricultural land shows that no project can succeed without the acceptance of all. Participatory democracy tools must be put in place within the framework of this PPE so that the people of Guadeloupe can design their new ways of consuming, producing and moving around. These tools must include training, awareness, participation in studies and decision-making.
To conclude, it is surprising that the structure of the continental metropolitan PPE model does not already appear. Guadeloupe’s autonomous energy territory is not fully addressed. Only the forecasts of the values of the productive power are put forward with questions on the evaluation of the socio-economic impacts and future reflections on the organization of mobility. The effects on the environment, the carbon footprint, and the cost of energy and mobility do not seem to have been considered yet.
In the end, the voice of the people is missing, the will of Guadeloupeans, of citizens to create the energy of tomorrow. And this, with all the consequences in terms of pollution, space management, environment, development, innovation, risks and independence. I, therefore, call for a review of the calendar and the addition of a stage with an enlightened popular consultation.
Jean-François, Marc DORVILLE, PhD in Fluid mechanics
Geophysical consultant, business manager
Former lecturer at the University of Western Brittany and Antilles-Guyana
Former lecturer at the University of the West Indies, Mona campus and head of the group on Renewable Energies
Baie-Mahault, March 15th, 2023
[1] https://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/programmations-pluriannuelles-lenergie-ppe
[2] PPE 2023-2033: GENERAL PUBLIC RESTITUTION SEMINAR ON MARCH 1, 2023
For the last two days, a low-pressure zone and a layer of sand (dust) from the Sahara have been interacting in a harmonious dance.
The Sahara dust limits the development of cloud structures in the low-pressure area and its convective movements, with progressive weathering visible on the animation. The depression favours the transport of the layer of dust towards North America.
The presence of Saharan dust in the atmosphere of the North Atlantic has many negative effects on health, in particular by reducing air quality with the presence of fine particles and bacteria. It also impacts the environment with a strong greenhouse effect which favours heat waves and drying of the air which modifies the frequency and the quantity of rainfall.
Conversely, the presence of particles modifies atmospheric dynamics, in particular cyclogenesis. In an atmosphere overloaded with sand, convection is limited or even stopped, cyclones have less favourable conditions to form.
The presence of large quantities of sand from the Sahara modifies our understanding of meteorology in the North Atlantic but also of the current and future climate. Years with large concentrations of Sahara dust disturb our perception of climate change.
Mangroves and their ecosystem have an essential role in biodiversity, the renewal of fish stock, the preservation of coastline, the quality of coastal waters, and the attenuation of flood waves. This list is not exhaustive and is growing day by day.
Therefore, preserving these environments is essential for the quality of life of women and men in the coastal zone.
Their preservation is complicated because they most often occupy areas with high tourist, port or real estate value. Making a choice between financially profitable projects and spaces that cannot be monetized is not accessible using a neo-capitalist reading grid.
To ensure the maintenance of these spaces of abundance, life and culture, it is necessary to agree to place the life of a fish, a mollusc, a crustacean, and a bird on the same level as that of ‘a company.
Read More : https://www.unesco.org/en/days/mangrove-ecosystem-conservation-day
March 23rd World Meteorological Day, this year’s theme is “Early Warning and Early Action”.
Meteorology is a relatively recent observational science. The technical progress made it possible after the Second World War (1950) to enter another dimension using remote sensors such as satellites and radio and then internet communicating sensors which allow the entire earth to be observed in real-time. Weather events can be monitored remotely from space or via sensors located in inaccessible areas.
A second revolution, that of digital (1970) made it possible to numerically simulate the ocean, the atmosphere and the ground over several days very quickly. Numerical weather forecasts are available every day for several weeks and therefore alert before extreme events: heatwave, snowstorm, sandstorm, torrential rain, extreme wind, hurricane, etc.
Despite these new capacities and their constant improvement, we remain weak in terms of the ability to adapt to extreme events, the causes of which we still have difficulty rigorously defining. Meteorology is not about the effects of risks, but about their origin: hazards.
Technologies, as in many other sciences, tend to make us forget that the size or form of digital information and data is not important, only their reliability counts and the people to analyse them.
On this world day TCGNRG invites you to ask yourself about the human resources available in your region to monitor weather phenomena, you will understand why forecasts are so inaccurate and so often wrong.
#WMO #WMD #WorldWeatherDay #Weather #Climate #Hydrology #LackOfResources #TCGNRG
March 22nd International Water Day the day after the International Day of Forests and on the eve of the International Day of Meteorology. Everything is intertwined and interconnected in our EARTH system.
Water is present everywhere on the surface of planet earth, in the form of liquid (salt, fresh or brackish water), solid (ice, snow) and gaseous (water vapour), both in the atmosphere but also in the grounds. WATER is essential for LIFE but also for landscapes, climate balance and technologies.
This year groundwater is highlighted. They are present in the form of aquifer, spring, infiltration.
Groundwater is an invisible and essential network for wetlands and deserts. They transport minerals, organic matter and recently (less than 200 years) persistent chemical pollutants; they feed ponds, rivers, and coastal waters.
Groundwater is the hidden part of the global water cycle, and because of its invisibility, it is too little protected.
On this international day, TCGNRG advises you to take the time to think consciously about where the water you drink or use comes from and where it goes in order to better participate in its preservation.
#Water #Preservation #Health #Pollution #WaterDay #InternationalDay #WaterDay #TCGNRG
Read More: https://www.worldwaterday.org/share-2022
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has declared March 21st as the International Day of Forests.
The forest as an ecological system is the basis of life and determines the supply of water, plant and animal resources, but also energy via wood, coal and peat for certain regions.
The forest performs many other missions, particularly in extreme environments such as in tropical areas with high rainfall where the stability of the soil is entirely their responsibility.
Few forest areas are preserved from the action of men, agriculture, logging and urbanization constitute the most visible threats, but the generalized use of pesticides and other chemical products weaken the components of these systems and push to their transformation.
New exotic species is also a major risk, globalization, the ease of the transport of goods with stowaways such as insects and snails, the desire to grow new plant species disturb forest systems with more or less serious and more or less lasting effects.
On the climate side, the role of the forest in the capture of atmospheric carbon is known but its role in rainfall is less so. Evaporation above forest areas allows a large number of microorganisms present on the leaves of trees to be found in the atmosphere and constitute as many condensation points for water vapour facilitating precipitation. A forest needs water to grow and facilitates rainfall.
The forest is a complex system, they all have their specificity and uniqueness, dry, wet, maritime. To enter a forest is to enter a full universe that deserves respect and protection like the oceans. Forests are essential to our life on this planet.
On this international day, ask yourself the question of the last time you went to the forest. If it’s been too long, plan a visit to reconnect with the biological reality of our planet and adapt our lifestyle.
#Forest #FAO #InternationalDay #Complex #Biology #Protection #Future #TCGNRG
Read More : https://www.fao.org/international-day-of-forests/en/
Education (and access to knowledge) without being a guarantee of social justice is one more chance to live in health, in peace and to avoid exploitation and this at all ages.
It is important for everyone to question the state of our education systems and the future we want in order to improve them.
Education also includes all the knowledge and human know-how developed, including the knowledge from our cultures. Globalization and access to knowledge on an industrial scale via the Internet classify knowledge, making the life of the knowledgeable unsuited to their environments.
On this international day, it is important to question an education at all ages that values and respects all knowledge, know-how and interpersonal skills.
TCGNRG’s essence is to make knowledge and understanding tools available to all, in particular for phenomena at the ocean-atmosphere interface. For this, respect for ancestral cultures and knowledge is essential because although the last hundred years have seen a progression in observation and modeling methods, they have only made it possible to directly characterize the last hundred (100) years of what is small compared to the history of mankind (7 million years).
#InternationalDay #Education #Knowledge #KnowHow #InterpersonalSkill #Respect #Cultures #UNSECO #TCGNRG
Read more on : https://en.unesco.org/commemorations/educationday
Wetland area are essential are for the biodiversity and the availability of water for environment. Too often, in the tropical area, these areas are confused with mangle swamp which is composed them. But there are more extensive and got many shades which made them zones too little known and studied
#WWD2021 #WetLand2021